If you spend enough time on social media at the moment, you’ll see that a large number of Aston Villa fans are calling for Cameron Archer to be the number 1 striker at Villa Park, ahead of more senior figures Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings. Each goal in pre-season (2 at the time of writing) has been met with loud demands to Steven Gerrard to have him lead the line this upcoming season.
This clambering for Archer to start is happening at the same time that Ollie Watkins is coming under intense criticism from certain fans, with specific derision aimed at his ability in one-on-one situations. Clearly, there is a sentiment around the stands that Watkins is not up to the grade, and that Archer is ready to step in for Aston Villa’s top goal scorer of the past two seasons
With a top-half finish the minimum expectation of fans, and Gerrard’s own ambition to finish in the top seven, putting such trust in a 20 year-old with virtually no top-flight experience seems extreme.
For those fans who want an upgrade on Watkins, whether it’s Cameron Archer or a new signing, the first question is who is actually available on the market that would be an improvement?
Can Aston Villa sign a better striker than Watkins?
In Watkins’s debut season for Villa, he finished fourth among strikers for goal contributions in the Premier League (taking into account only traditional strikers). His 14 goals and 5 assists was bettered only by Harry Kane, Patrick Bamford and Jamie Vardy.
It’s true that these numbers did decline in his second season, with a return of 11 goals and 2 assists, but there are two important points to be made here. The first, of course, is the departure of Jack Grealish, and the recruitment that followed.
Grealish’s transfer meant Aston Villa lost their most creative player, one who almost every attack flowed through, and who allowed Watkins to shine as he benefited from Jack’s movement and vision. The following signings of Emi Buendía, Danny Ings and Leon Bailey meant that Watkins had to learn to play in a different system with new players, which can take time to adapt to. Throw in the sacking of Dean Smith and Gerrard’s appointment, and consistency was hard to come by at Villa Park.
Fans’ demand for a ‘proven Premier League scorer’ brings us to the next question: who is this mythical striker, and how do Aston Villa sign him? As mentioned above, only Kane, Bamford and Vardy finished above Watkins in the 2020/21 season. Kane is obviously not coming to Villa any time soon; Vardy is 35 and looks set to retire at Leicester City; Bamford, while having a fantastic debut season, spent most of last season injured, and has not proven that he can repeat his initial numbers.
So what about strikers who finished above Watkins last season? Kane and Vardy we can again immediately rule out, with the addition of Ronaldo. Antonio has no reason to leave the project at West Ham, and is injury-prone. Richarlison just secured a big-money move to Tottenham, who finished fourth, and I can’t imagine the prospect of Teemu Pukki exciting many Villa fans. That leaves Brentford’s Ivan Toney and Watford’s Dennis as potential options for Aston Villa.
Both Toney and Dennis look impressive, but it’s important to note that they both had very similar debut seasons to Watkins, even contributing one and two goals fewer respectively. Whether they would provide an immediate upgrade at a reasonable fee is hugely speculative, and Watkins deserves to show he can climb the rankings this upcoming season.
Is Cameron Archer ready to lead the Villa attack?
So if not a new signing, why not Cameron Archer? An impressive loan at Preston in the Championship last season, not to mention his hat-trick for Villa in the EFL Cup, has fans rightly excited about his potential. But at 20 years of age and limited top-flight experience, ‘potential’ is the important word. I don’t disagree that his future looks bright at Villa, but trusting him to lead the line right now is not the right way to continue his development.
From a numbers perspective, Archer currently doesn’t come close to Watkins either. His 7 goals and 1 assist in 20 Championship appearances is some distance off what Watkins achieved in this last season playing in the same division: 26 goals and 3 assists in 45 appearances. His 0.63 goal contributions per game is more than 50% higher than Archer’s 0.4.
Those who do believe Archer is capable of displacing Watkins now will argue that Archer was only 20 years old last season, while Watkins was 24 at the end of his last season in the Championship, but that is exactly the point. Archer may well become a better striker than Watkins, but there is nothing to suggest that he is better right now.
The best thing for Cameron Archer this season will be to see him integrated into the matchday squads with appearances off the bench and occasional start, or for him to go back on loan to a top Championship side to further mature. We have reason to be excited, but let’s temper that with a hint of patience.
Up The Villans 