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  • The Case Against Cameron Archer

    The Case Against Cameron Archer

    If you spend enough time on social media at the moment, you’ll see that a large number of Aston Villa fans are calling for Cameron Archer to be the number 1 striker at Villa Park, ahead of more senior figures Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings. Each goal in pre-season (2 at the time of writing) has been met with loud demands to Steven Gerrard to have him lead the line this upcoming season.

    An optimistic view on Cameron Archer

    This clambering for Archer to start is happening at the same time that Ollie Watkins is coming under intense criticism from certain fans, with specific derision aimed at his ability in one-on-one situations. Clearly, there is a sentiment around the stands that Watkins is not up to the grade, and that Archer is ready to step in for Aston Villa’s top goal scorer of the past two seasons

    With a top-half finish the minimum expectation of fans, and Gerrard’s own ambition to finish in the top seven, putting such trust in a 20 year-old with virtually no top-flight experience seems extreme. 

    For those fans who want an upgrade on Watkins, whether it’s Cameron Archer or a new signing, the first question is who is actually available on the market that would be an improvement? 

    Can Aston Villa sign a better striker than Watkins?

    In Watkins’s debut season for Villa, he finished fourth among strikers for goal contributions in the Premier League (taking into account only traditional strikers). His 14 goals and 5 assists was bettered only by Harry Kane, Patrick Bamford and Jamie Vardy. 

    Only Kane, Bamford and Vardy contributed more goals than Watkins (traditional strikers only) in the 2020/21 Premier League season

    It’s true that these numbers did decline in his second season, with a return of 11 goals and 2 assists, but there are two important points to be made here. The first, of course, is the departure of Jack Grealish, and the recruitment that followed. 

    Grealish’s transfer meant Aston Villa lost their most creative player, one who almost every attack flowed through, and who allowed Watkins to shine as he benefited from Jack’s movement and vision. The following signings of Emi Buendía, Danny Ings and Leon Bailey meant that Watkins had to learn to play in a different system with new players, which can take time to adapt to. Throw in the sacking of Dean Smith and Gerrard’s appointment, and consistency was hard to come by at Villa Park. 

    Fans’ demand for a ‘proven Premier League scorer’ brings us to the next question: who is this mythical striker, and how do Aston Villa sign him? As mentioned above, only Kane, Bamford and Vardy finished above Watkins in the 2020/21 season. Kane is obviously not coming to Villa any time soon; Vardy is 35 and looks set to retire at Leicester City; Bamford, while having a fantastic debut season, spent most of last season injured, and has not proven that he can repeat his initial numbers. 

    So what about strikers who finished above Watkins last season? Kane and Vardy we can again immediately rule out, with the addition of Ronaldo. Antonio has no reason to leave the project at West Ham, and is injury-prone. Richarlison just secured a big-money move to Tottenham, who finished fourth, and I can’t imagine the prospect of Teemu Pukki exciting many Villa fans. That leaves Brentford’s Ivan Toney and Watford’s Dennis as potential options for Aston Villa. 

    Ollie Watkins fell down the striker power-rankings in the Premier League 2021/22 season

    Both Toney and Dennis look impressive, but it’s important to note that they both had very similar debut seasons to Watkins, even contributing one and two goals fewer respectively. Whether they would provide an immediate upgrade at a reasonable fee is hugely speculative, and Watkins deserves to show he can climb the rankings this upcoming season. 

    Is Cameron Archer ready to lead the Villa attack?

    So if not a new signing, why not Cameron Archer? An impressive loan at Preston in the Championship last season, not to mention his hat-trick for Villa in the EFL Cup, has fans rightly excited about his potential. But at 20 years of age and limited top-flight experience, ‘potential’ is the important word. I don’t disagree that his future looks bright at Villa, but trusting him to lead the line right now is not the right way to continue his development. 

    From a numbers perspective, Archer currently doesn’t come close to Watkins either. His 7 goals and 1 assist in 20 Championship appearances is some distance off what Watkins achieved in this last season playing in the same division: 26 goals and 3 assists in 45 appearances. His 0.63 goal contributions per game is more than 50% higher than Archer’s 0.4. 

    Cameron Archer reflects on his time at Preston North End

    Those who do believe Archer is capable of displacing Watkins now will argue that Archer was only 20 years old last season, while Watkins was 24 at the end of his last season in the Championship, but that is exactly the point. Archer may well become a better striker than Watkins, but there is nothing to suggest that he is better right now. 

    The best thing for Cameron Archer this season will be to see him integrated into the matchday squads with appearances off the bench and occasional start, or for him to go back on loan to a top Championship side to further mature. We have reason to be excited, but let’s temper that with a hint of patience. 

  • Three Aston Villa Players To Pick In Fantasy Football

    Three Aston Villa Players To Pick In Fantasy Football

    With less than a month to go until the beginning of the 2022/23 Premier League season, fans are once again free to pick their Fantasy Football teams, with the price of all players now being revealed. 

    Die-hard fans across the land will be working out which Aston Villa players to include in their team from the off, while true loyalists will be maxing out their squad with the full quota of 3 players allowed from each team. 

    With a limited budget of 100, making the most of every penny is key to going the distance in Fantasy Football. So let’s take a look at each Villa player ranked in terms of points-per-price. 

    Matty Cash leads the way for value-for-money in Fantasy Premier League, with 29.4 points per million

    Matty Cash – best value for money

    Matty Cash is the outright leader of the pack, with an impressive 29.4 points per pound spent on him. Not only that, but the Polish Cafu is also outright in terms of overall points, his total of 147 comfortably beating second-highest points-earner Ollie Watkins’ 131. With prices of 5 and 7.5 respectively, Cash becomes a clear choice, again illustrated by Watkins’ relatively low 8th position for points-per-price. 

    Going beyond pure numbers, Cash is also an appealing choice to Villa fans for 3 further reasons. First, there is no real competition for his place at right-back, with Guilbert’s current return to Bodymoor Heath unlikely to turn into a regular place in the starting lineup. 

    Second, Matty Cash loves a goal, and has made no secret about trying to increase his goal contributions, something every Fantasy player should be delighted to hear. 

    Third, there has been significant investment in Villa’s backline since January 2022. Lucas Digne arrived at left-back in January, with Diego Carlos’ arrival from Sevilla this summer meaning that Villa have a much stronger looking defence than we saw this past season. Add fellow newboy Boubacar Kamara in defensive midfield, and Matty Cash should be earning you more clean sheet points this season than last. 

    Tyrone Mings – a cunning money-saver

    Keeping on the theme of defence, and Tyrone Mings doesn’t look a bad option either, as Villa’s second-highest player for points-per-price. At a price of just 4.5, there are only 3 other defenders in the league available for the same price with higher scores. Villa’s defensive recruitments mentioned above also applies to Mings, and gives reason to be optimistic that he can climb the points ranking this season. Mings therefore represents a bargain squad-member that allows you to save budget for big hitter up-front or in midfield. 

    Philippe Coutinho – a big season ahead?

    Another player surely on the minds of every Villa fan out there as they pick their teams is none other than Philippe Coutinho. At first glance, his points-per-price of 11.9 looks incredibly low, and has him sitting way down the Villa ranking in 12th. 

    However, it must be taken into consideration that the Brazilian only played in 19 games last season. Gerrard has shown that he likes to change between having Coutinho and Emiliano Buendía play together, to rotating the two players. For that reason, it’s a reasonable assumption to say that Coutinho will probably play around 30 games next season, barring any unforeseen injuries. 

    If we take Coutinho’s points tally from last season and model it from his 19 games played to a 30-match estimate, his stats begin to look a lot better. His estimated total points tally of 131 puts him level with Watkins at second overall, while his slightly lower price of 7 means his points-per-price is also marginally better than the striker’s. 

    At 18.7, his estimated points-per-price is still relatively modest, and puts him behind the likes of Jacob Ramsey and John McGinn, but with a half-season now under his belt we could see a more consistent Coutinho this season. 

    Which Aston Villa players are you going to pick for your Fantasy Football team? Let us know in the comments below!

  • Chukwuemeka and Ramsey score as Villa trio conquer Europe

    Chukwuemeka and Ramsey score as Villa trio conquer Europe

    Carney Chukwuemeka and Aaron Ramsey scored in extra time as England beat Israel in the European Under-19 Championship. 

    There was a sense of fortune around both the young Villans’ goals as they struck in extra time to seal a 3-1 victory, completing a comeback against Israel to win the tournament for the second time in five years. 

    Carney Chukwuemeka chested in England’s second in the 108th minute to put England ahead, the ball bouncing awkwardly in front of him as he appeared to stick out his foot to connect before directing the ball into the back of the net with his chest. 

    Just eight minutes later Aaron Ramsey, subbed on at 58 minutes, sealed victory for England, smashing into an open goal following a parried save from the Israel shot-stopper. 

    Fellow young Lion Tim Iroegbunam came off the bench in the 73rd minute to make it 3 Villa players on the pitch as the final whistle went. 

    The youngsters are following in the footsteps of players such as Mason Mount, Reece James and Aaron Ramsdale, who won the tournament in 2017 and have gone on to become key players for Chelsea and Arsenal. 

    Aaron Ramsey’s older brother, Jacob, has just had a breakout season with the senior Villa squad, registering 6 goals and 1 assist to finish as the team’s third top-scorer. Following his success with the England U19s, Aaron will be doing everything he can to make the step up at club level and join his brother on the pitch. 

    Chukwuemeka contract up in the air

    While Ramsey committed his future to Aston Villa by signing a professional contract in March 2021, there are serious doubts over the future of Chukwuemeka. Highly rated by head coach Steven Gerrard and the backroom staff, Chukwuemeka has stalled over renewing his contract with the club. Now entering the final 12 months of his deal, top European clubs such as Liverpool and Barcelona are said to be monitoring the midfielder’s situation closely. 

    At just 18 years old, Chukwuemeka’s minutes in the first-team have been limited as Jacob Ramsey, 20, has been given the opportunity to develop in the senior setup alongside John McGinn and Douglas Luiz. 

    The arrival of Boubacar Kamara on a free transfer from Marseille will further complicate Chukwuemeka’s route to the first-team, but at just 18 years old time is on his side. And while a move to the likes of Barcelona or Liverpool would entice many young players, it is unlikely improve his chances for game-time in the short-term. 

    Steven Gerrard and co have an important job ahead of them to convince one of the latest jewels of the youth academy to commit his long-term future to Aston Villa.

  • What next for Aston Villa Midfield

    What next for Aston Villa Midfield

    The emergence of Jacob Ramsey last season helped many Villa fans forget about the trauma of losing Jack Grealish, arguably the greatest ever product of Aston Villa’s youth academy, to Manchester City for £100m. 

    The players brought in to replace Jack Grealish didn’t quite live up to expectations. Emi Buendia did not begin to shine until the latter stages of the season; Leon Bailey was beset by constant injuries; and Danny Ings, while ending the season level with Watkins for Premier League goal contributions, had an inconsistent debut campaign for the Villans. 

    With Grealish having joined the club at 9 years old as a local lad, it is perhaps fitting that the player to replace his promise in the Villa squad was Jacob Ramsey. Born in Birmingham and joining Aston Villa at age 6, Ramsey is Villa through-and-through. Now aged 21, he has just enjoyed a breakout season with his boyhood club, scoring 6 goals and assisting one in 35 Premier League appearances. He finished as the club’s third-top scorer, one ahead of Philippe Coutinho, although of course he only arrived in January. 

    Credit must be given to Dean Smith, who led Villa back to the Premier League in 2019, for giving Ramsey his chance in the first team. Smith handed Ramsey 22 appearances in the 2020/21 season, and while the youngster failed to register any goals or assists, his potential was there to see. The following season, he scored his first senior goal under Smith in a 3-1 loss to Arsenal, the third match in a run of 5 consecutive defeats that ultimately led to Smith’s dismissal. Due to Smith’s role in nurturing Ramsey, there was a cruel irony in that his next goal would come in Smith’s first match in charge of Norwich, against his former club. Now under the tutelage of midfield legend and personal hero Steven Gerrard, Ramsey went on to reach 5 goals and one assist in 21 games, having scored only one in his previous 14. 

    It is clear to see that Gerrard rates Ramsey, stating that he is a “top talent” who will become a “terrific player” following Ramsey’s first brace for the club in a 3-3 draw against Leeds United. Likewise, Ramsey has expressed his delight at working under Gerrard, his awe clear when telling how he “grew up watching him and [now] he’s my gaffer”. 

    Jacob Ramsey talks about playing under Gerrard following Villa’s 3-3 draw with Leeds

    Considering Ramsey’s clear progress under Gerrard and the latter’s apparent belief in the youngster, the question coming into the new season is how can we expect to see Aston Villa’s midfield line up in the 2022/23 season?

    How will Aston Villa’s midfield look in 2022/23?

    Villa spent the majority of last season playing with a midfield trio of Jacob Ramsey, John McGinn and Douglas Luiz. Despite impressing Gerrard under his few matches, Marvellous Nakamba was sidelined by injury and made few appearances following his recovery, meaning the three midfield mainstays were rarely threatened by competition for their places in the starting lineup. 

    Player recruitment has begun swiftly at Villa Park, however, with Gerrard’s recruitment team having captured one of Europe’s leading young midfield talents, Boubacar Kamara, on a free transfer from Marseille. A defensive midfielder with 3 caps for the France National team, the 22 year-old’s signing has been labelled as a “major, major coup” by Philippe Auclair on the Guardian Weekly Football Podcast, citing the player as “one of the great hopes of French football”.

    Considering Villa’s poor defensive record last season, a player with Kamara’s profile must be in Gerrard’s first-team plans from matchday one of the upcoming season. Sitting in front of the centre-back pairing, the hope will be for him to add defensive solidity and allow Lucas Digne and Matty Cash to get forward when possible from the full-back positions. 

    Assuming that Aston Villa will line up in the same formation this season, that leaves 2 spots for 3 midfielders: Ramsey, McGinn and Douglas Luiz. 

    Luiz, who is entering the final 12 months of his contract, has been the subject of interest from Jose Mourinho’s Roma, with a potential fee of €30m being rumoured. It remains to be seen whether an official offer is forthcoming, and how the Villa hierarchy would react. Having been deployed largely in a defensive midfield role, Luiz has been decent if not outstanding, but there is a belief that he is not being used to his best potential, further up the pitch, where we have seen that he is capable of the occasional long-range strike. With the arrival of Kamara, will Gerrard and the Board risk rejecting offers this summer and losing him on a free transfer next year in order to get the best out of him in a more offensive role? This would be a significant financial bet, one which would also mean relegating either Ramsey or McGinn to a place on the bench. 

    John McGinn received similar overtures from Steven Gerrard as Ramsey when he took over at Villa Park. Following Villa’s 2-0 win at Norwich, he went as far to say that “I love John McGinn, I love the person, the character, the player”. Starting every match under Gerrard that he was available for last season, it is hard to see McGinn dropping to the bench, with his consistently high work-rate setting the bar for his teammates. 

    Unleashing John McGinn’s attacking ability

    Similarly to Douglas Luiz, the belief among fans is that McGinn has too been throttled by not being permitted a more attacking role. At international level, McGinn has netted 13 times in 48 caps for Scotland, compared to 15 goals in 141 Villa appearances. While it is fair to say that many of these goals came against fairly weak opposition (a hattrick against San Marino and a brace each against Kazakhstan and the Faroe Islands), there is evidence that McGinn could excel for Villa with more attacking licence. With Kamara setting the tempo of the game behind him, perhaps we will see such a McGinn this season. 

    John McGinn scores first-half hattrick for Scotland against San Marino

    All three players have a case for starting alongside Kamara next season, but under the current setup only two can, and it is hard to see any changes to the formation that would see one of Watkins, Coutinho or Ings/Buendia miss out. 

    Heading into the new season, consistency is going to be key, something that was sorely lacking throughout the last campaign. Smith was swiftly punished for this, despite being a fan favourite, and despite promising signs under Gerrard, his Aston Villa team has also been guilty of inconsistency. A three-game winning run that saw Villa score nine and concede zero was immediately followed by 4 consecutive defeats in which they shipped nine goals. 

    Jacob Ramsey is a wonderful talent, and it would be cruel to halt his development by limiting his minutes, but the question must be asked as to whether Gerrard will prioritise his progress ahead of that of the team. This is not to cast any blame at the youngster’s feet for Villa’s inconsistency, however there is always a risk when handing starting spots to younger, rawer players. 

    John McGinn is an exemplary dynamo with the potential to provide more in the way of goals, and it would not be surprising to see Gerrard maintain his trust in the Scotsman. 

    Should the mooted interest in Douglas Luiz be true, it would make financial sense for Villa to offload the player while they can gain a sizable transfer-fee for him, while solving a selection headache for Gerrard. However, Gerrard is keen to keep competition for starting spots high. Diego Carlos was signed from Sevilla, with the centre-back joining Mings, Konza, Chambers and Hause in the race for a space in the starting XI. 

    The signing of Kamara, the promise of Ramsey, the industry of McGinn and the contract situation of Luiz puts the spotlight firmly on the Villa midfield going into next season. Time will tell how they each fit into Gerrard’s plans.